Exam bosses have warned that A level grades are expected to be lower overall as exam conditions return fully to pre-pandemic conditions in Wales. The warnings have been made throughout the academic year as regulator Qualifications Wales and exam board WJEC kept in touch with schools and colleges.

This summer’s exams returned in full to pre-pandemic conditions meaning candidates for A levels, AS and GCSEs did not had advance information about topics or any other help to mitigate for Covid “lost learning”. It is the first year since 2019 that exams have been held under “normal” conditions.

Grades were awarded by teacher assessment in 2020, after a huge row over an algorithm which downgraded results, and then again in 2021. Exams were sat in 2022 and 2023 but with support for candidates to take into account disruption to their work owing to pandemic classroom closures and lockdowns. Join our WhatsApp community group where you can get the latest stories delivered straight to your phone

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The changes to the exam system between 2019 and 2023 led to what some have seen as “grade inflation” with record high results posted. Help for candidates in 2022 and 2023 included some advance information on content that candidates would be asked about and a supportive grading approach.

Qualifications Wales said at the start of the summer term that lower results should be expected this year. GCSEs, A-levels, and vocational qualification results are likely to be broadly similar to those pre-pandemic, although comparisons with previous years is problematic owing to the huge turmoil in the system caused by Covid and the journey back to more “normal” grading.

“Over the last couple of years we have taken a gradual approach to returning to pre-pandemic arrangements. At each point we’ve considered the needs of learners alongside our responsibility to maintain confidence in the Welsh qualifications system. We believe this is important to safeguard the long-term value of learners’ grades,” she said.

Kerry Davies, head of general qualifications monitoring and standards at Qualifications Wales, said before the summer term exams were sat:“It’s important that everyone has a clear and shared understanding about the value of learners’ grades and that’s why it’s vital we continue our journey to pre-pandemic assessment arrangements... Overall we expect that national results this summer are likely to be lower than they were in 2023.”

She went on: “This year is slightly different though because it’s the first summer series, for quite a while, where we expect results for both general (such as GCSEs and A-levels) and vocational qualifications to be broadly similar to pre-pandemic outcomes. Learners are at the heart of our decisions so over the last couple of years we have taken a gradual approach to returning to pre-pandemic arrangements. “At each point we’ve considered the needs of learners alongside our responsibility to maintain confidence in the Welsh qualifications system. We believe this is important to safeguard the long-term value of learners’ grades.”

She said returning to pre-pandemic system gave “a sense of fairness” and “confidence” in grades and “builds trust in Welsh qualifications”.

“It’s important that everyone has a clear and shared understanding about the value of learners’ grades and that’s why it’s vital we continue our journey to pre-pandemic assessment arrangements... We know that the pandemic has had a long-term impact on learning for some so there will be some protection to avoid results in individual subjects being well below pre-pandemic years to provide a safety net if necessary.

“Overall we expect that national results this summer are likely to be lower than they were in 2023.”

Exams returned to pre-pandemic conditions in England last summer, a year ahead of Wales. That change saw results plunge there.