The number of people from Wales applying to university has fallen this year amid calls for “urgent” action from the Welsh Government. Alongside an overall drop in university applications from and to here, Wales also now has the lowest proportion of 18-year-olds in the UK applying to undergraduate courses.
The figures come in UK-wide data showing Wales bucks the trend with university applications to and from other UK nations rising along with an increase in applications from higher paying international students, which is also not reflected here. Universities Wales, which represents the sector, called for urgent action from Welsh Government and funding body Medr to address what it described as a “participation crisis”.
A decline in people from Wales attending university will have long-term implications for the future prosperity of the nation, Universities Wales said. At the same time applications to undergraduate degree courses from higher paying international applicants to Wales' universities are down by 4% and EU applicants are down 6% and now stand at the lowest on record. You can get more story updates straight to your inbox by subscribing to our newsletters here
The figures, revealed in the latest data from university admissions service UCAS also show a very slight overall fall in applications to Welsh universities this year while applications to universities in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland have grown. The bad news comes as Wales’ universities already face combined deficits of at least £70m amid huge proposed job cuts and department closures.
Cardiff University is consulting on the proposed loss of 400 academic posts and the closure of entire academic schools and degree programmes including nursing. Other universities have also been shedding staff with voluntary redundancy programmes.
Universities Wales warned the situation is now "urgent" in terms of participation rates from Wales and applications. The proportion of 18-year-olds from Wales applying to UK universities is now well below half and has continued to fall alongside a decline in applications from mature students in Wales.
Applicant figures for the UCAS January deadline show that just 32% of Welsh 18-year-olds have applied to university this year compared to 33.2% last year. This is “particularly concerning when compared to the UK as a whole, where the figure stands at 40.6%” said Universities Wales.
The figures go on to reveal a widening participation gap between the least and most advantaged students in Wales and disadvantaged students in Wales are also less likely to access university, compared to other parts of the UK. Applications from mature students in Wales has fallen particularly in the 25-34 age group. Wales now has the fewest numbers of mature students applying to university than at any point in the past decade.
“If unddressed, this decline in people attending university will have long-term implications for the future prosperity of the nation and the opportunities available to today’s students and future generations,” Universities Wales said as the data was published.
The body has previously highlighted its fears around falling participation rates in evidence to the Senedd’s Children Young People and Education Committee’s recent inquiry into routes into post-16 education and training. Universities Wales warned that the problem goes beyond university.
Wales has seen “an alarming fall” in people staying in full-time post-16 education. A-Level participation rates in Wales are significantly lower than in England, with just 33% of young people studying A-levels compared to 47% in England, it said.
“Fewer 16-year-olds undertaking A-Levels means fewer students moving into higher education and obtaining the higher-skilled jobs that Wales’ economy will need to thrive.
“It also means that individuals are losing out on the transformational benefits a university education can provide – including a significant boost to salary, employment levels and lifelong career prospects. This is particularly concerning in light of the widening participation gap between the least and most advantaged, as the data shows that the benefits of university are especially strong for people from disadvantaged backgrounds.”
Universities have been warning that applications from higher paying international students - which they have relied on to plug inflation and static home tuition fees - have also dropped. Most of the cash from those is form postgraduate students and the UCAS data is only for undergraduate applications, but even for those the numbers are down.
Latest UCAS shows:
The figures, which cover the UCAS January application deadline could change. Late applications may come later in the year as well as through Clearing, although for its part Cardiff University has stated it will take fewer students via Clearing and fewer with lower grades.
Universities Wales Director, Amanda Wilkinson, said: “There is now clear and consistent evidence that fewer people in Wales are engaging with education beyond the compulsory age of 16 - and fewer going to university than at any point in the past decade. This is a concerning situation which will have long term implications for Wales.
“The industries that will drive our economic growth in the decades to come rely heavily on graduates. If Welsh people are not gaining these skills, Wales’ economy will find itself at an economic disadvantage compared to the rest of the UK, where the proportion of graduates in the workforce will be higher.
“But it’s not just our economy and public services that will be affected. It will also result in a lack of opportunities for the people who would benefit from the transformative experience on offer at university.
“This stark issue presents the very real possibility that future generations of young people in Wales will be less qualified than those that have gone before them.”
Universities Wales is calling for urgent action from Welsh Government and Medr to address this participation crisis. This includes boosting the numbers of young people undertaking qualifications and training that open up access to the higher-level skills that Wales needs for the future.”
Ms Wilkinson added: “It is crucial that Welsh Government and Medr work to understand how to improve and support Welsh participation in post-16 education to secure opportunities for today’s students and future generations.
The Welsh Government said it was disappointing to see a fall in numbers of 18-year-olds applying to university but said within that group there had been a 4.5% rise in those from disadvantaged backgrounds applying. It also pointed out rise in numbers of international applications to study nursing degrees in Wales.
A Welsh Government Spokesperson said: “It is positive to see a rise in the number of 18-year-old Welsh applicants from a disadvantaged background applying to university. However, it is disappointing to see a slight decrease in the number of 18-year-olds in Wales applying to university.
"We are working to increase participation across all post-16 learning options. This includes investing £1.5m into activities that will improve participation and investing in improving school attendance and attainment as these are key to increasing tertiary participation longer term.”
Numbers of applications to Wales according to latest UCAS data
UK-wide university applicants are up. According to UCAS:
International applicant numbers to undergraduate courses at UK universities
Wales
2025 - 8,420
2016 - 10,340
England
2025 - 113,560
2016 - 90,180
Northern Ireland
2025 - 6,730
2016- 2,830
Scotland
2025 - 40,750
2016 - 32,380
While Universities Wales warned urgent action is needed here, UCAS chief executive Dr Jo Saxton sounded a cheer for the UK as a whole and said it was "encouraging to see a record high number of UK 18-year-olds applying for university". She added: “It’s particularly welcome news to see that global confidence in the UK’s higher education sector remains strong, with an increase in international undergraduate applicants via UCAS to UK universities and colleges in 2025.
“For anyone who is still considering whether to apply this year but has not yet made an application in 2025, don’t worry – you still have plenty of time, with tens of thousands of courses still available. Students can continue to submit an application throughout the year, and UCAS is on hand to support you every step of the way.”
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