It will be harder for students to gain a place at Cardiff University this year under plans to accept fewer but higher-grade candidates, it has emerged. The development was revealed as the university grapples with what it now admits is in fact a massive £65m expected deficit – more than twice last year's recently-published deficit.

And while the university suggests shedding 400 academic posts, with more job losses likely to follow, new roles will be created including " learning designers", "academic developers", and "instructional technologists to complement and support academics in their work,” a document seen by WalesOnline shows. As part of sweeping proposed cuts announced last week, including the loss of 400 academic posts and closure of the school of nursing, the university wants to admit fewer but higher-achieving domestic undergraduates and curb numbers accepted through clearing .

The 76-page document does not say whether grade requirements will also be raised for higher-paying international students – the group which for many years institutions admit has been plugging the income gap caused in part by static home tuition fees. Read more details about Cardiff University's proposed cuts here.

The paper, marked confidential and titled 'Academic futures consultation document – proposals for re-shaping the academic activity of Cardiff University', was sent to staff. It also warns that as well as 400 academic job cuts further job losses will follow among non-academic staff and savings are also planned from the university’s estate.

Cardiff University, Wales largest and only elite Russell Group university, says in the paper that at the start of this year it predicted a forthcoming £65m deficit. That’s more than twice that of last year and nearly equivalent to the entire combined deficits of all Welsh universities in the year to July 2024 although the university says mitigations will prevent it reaching that sum.

The eyewatering predicted deficit if action isn't taken is revealed in the document to staff detailing the plans, reasons, and timetable for the proposed cuts which have prompted widespread condemnation across Wales and beyond from politicians, staff, students, and the Royal College of Nursing among others. The document, which says it regrets Cardiff University dropping in international rankings, outlines plans for a smaller, more elite institution. Get daily breaking news updates on your phone by joining our WhatsApp community here.

The paper outlines changes to the way degrees are run. It says the aim is to be higher quality but smaller: “ We expect these changes to support a higher quality and more consistent student experience as well as ensuring that Cardiff remains competitive in home and overseas markets."

Cardiff and other universities have long warned that tuition fees for home students don’t cover the cost of their courses despite two rises this year – neither of which are expected to cover increases in National Insurance payments alone. Institutions have relied for years on income from higher-paying international undergraduate and postgraduate students to cushion this but their numbers have plunged. You can read more details of the proposed cuts here and details of a mass rally held against them this week here.

Outlining plans to require higher grades to win a place at Cardiff University from 2025-26 the document says: “We will benefit from ‘maintaining tariff’ and reducing volume in undergraduate home (UGH) numbers. Over recent years we have softened our entry requirements to maximise intakes, including through clearing – our proposals here are that Cardiff will now ‘hold tariff’ and no longer soften to the same extent." The paper goes on to say: “This will lead to a reduction in UGH (home undergraduate) numbers from 2025-26 onwards, justified on the following grounds:

• The financial benefit of greater volumes of UGH fee-payers, once indicative overheads are taken into account, is now negligible. Even with the recent increase to UGH fees, our modelling of ‘holding tariff’ vs ‘maxing volume’ scenarios found that there is no longer financial benefit to taking more of this category of student. Put simply, higher volumes necessitate greater on-costs.
• Holding on entry tariff brings reputational benefits in terms of market position – we will return to the grades typically ‘expected’ of a Russell Group institution, be less reliant on clearing to make our numbers, and will achieve small gains in domestic rankings.
• There will be benefits to the student (and staff) experience with smaller, similar-tariff, cohorts.
• Reducing student numbers will enable greater efficiencies and cost reduction in professional services and overheads as well as in academic areas."

The message to staff goes on to warn that the university is “struggling to compete with other, higher-ranked and better-recognised UK institutions” for that decreased international demand – not helped by a fall to 186th in the widely-regarded QS World University Rankings last year. It says the growth of home undergraduates in recent years has seen Cardiff take more students through clearing “at the expense of lowering tariff in some subjects, with the resulting need to accommodate large and diverse cohorts posing challenges for both teaching and the student experience”.

Detailing the gloomy financial outlook ahead the document says that the operating deficit has ballooned from £31.2m in 2023-24 to a forecast £65m thanks largely to inflation, the “sharp decline” of international students, and new National Insurance payments which are not even covered by the recent rise in Welsh tuition fees. These factors have been widely cited by universities across Wales and the UK struggling to balance the books. On the UK Government’s recent changes to employers’ NI contributions the university estimates this will add £7m annually onto current staffing levels while the Welsh tuition fee is increasing to £9,535 but that will only cover roughly half of the NI increase.

Only two universities in Wales did not report deficits in the year to July 2024 – Wrexham and the University of Wales Trinity St David. Financial reports published by all except Bangor University last week show combined deficits of around £70m, sector representative Universities Wales confirmed, but Cardiff University staff are now threatening to strike saying the situation has been badly managed.

The Cardiff University document warns also that even the brutal proposed cuts it announced last week don’t fully close the financial gap it faces. Further proposals to cut costs will include “rationalisation of the estate” while the proposed closures and mergers of academic schools, including nursing and modern languages, will “impact professional services (PS) colleagues”

Students and staff will also see a difference to the way degrees are run. There will be “clearer and simpler
degree pathways that remove unnecessary module choice, review pedagogy and assessment, and improve(d) time tabling", the document says. While some jobs are going new roles are being created such as “learning designers”, “academic developers”, and “instructional technologists” to complement and support academics in their work.

“We will develop a whole-university graduate school with aligned interdisciplinary postgraduate teaching and research programmes. More of our provision will be made available via different pathways and platforms, reaching new and expanding audiences pursuing learning beyond the traditional degree programme. To support these changes we will further develop roles such as learning designers, academic developers, and instructional technologists to complement and support academics in their work,” the document outlines.

A university spokesman said: "The deficit for 2023-24 is £31.2m. If we do nothing this financial year (2024-25) it would increase to £65m because of: a £16m pay award; a reduction of £6m in grants received from Medr; inflationary increases including energy costs of around £17m; offset by a £7m reduction from changes in our USS contributions.

"University Council has allowed the university to budget for our third consecutive year of operating deficits and we set the budget at a £28m underlying operating deficit. We have significant work to do to achieve that budget and get our cost base in good shape so that we are not delivering deficits in 2025-26 and beyond.

"To get to the £28m deficit we need to find £37m of savings and/or income. We will do this through making non-pay (estates, IT costs, travel and other procurement savings) savings. We have increased the numbers of domestic students we have recruited to partially mitigate the impact of lower international students.

"We opened a voluntary severance scheme to reduce our staffing costs. We continue to operate recruitment controls and are only recruiting what are deemed critical posts. The university is reducing its reserves to finance these deficits. It is a not a position we can sustain indefinitely which is why we need to reduce our cost base in the short term and aim to grow our income sustainably over the medium term."

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